![]() Corn yield was slashed over 4 bu/acre while beans were cut to a sub-50 bu crop. ![]() Last year, we saw a huge drop in prices from the August report to the September report, and this was after a much more bullish report than we received this year. Given most of Nebraska is currently in some stage of drought while Iowa’s drought monitor looks more ominous by the day, traders are coming to the realization this crop isn’t finishing like they’d prefer. While heat is expected in August, long periods without rain make the situation worse. The biggest reason for the move from my vantage point is weather. For December corn, we’ve seen eight straight higher closes, while November beans have rallied 85 cents over those same eight sessions. So, the big question many asked is why did these markets rally on a day when the numbers weren’t bullish? We must look at how the market has reacted over the last couple of weeks. With both corn and beans coming in within the range of guesses and close to the average trade guess, there simply wasn’t anything exciting enough to steer the market in any one direction. and world stocks are concerned, there were no big surprises there either. While this number was a bit rich for some, beans rebounded nicely with some surmising the trade might expect yield reductions in subsequent reports.Īs far as U.S. Given August is the all-important month for bean production, a warmer, drier bias has been anything but welcome. With the average trade guess at 51.1 bushels per acre, a 51.9 yield was certainly towards the upper end of the range of guesses. The soybean yield may have been as much of a surprise as anything in the report. While many look toward a tough August in much of the western Corn Belt to limit yields even more, we must remember the yield data was taken as of Aug. 1. With the average trade guess for corn yields at 175.9, USDA coming in at 175.4 was a non-event. The main data most look for immediately is of course yield. As we sort out the complexity of handicapping this 2022 crop, what happens in the next couple of weeks will likely drive market action. ![]() With some adjustments on Friday, the market seemed to shift its focus from those production estimates to what it had been trading for several days-weather. While the USDA no longer gets in the field to count ears, it’s generally the first adjustment in yield the market gets to see. The August WASDE report is always a big one.
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